Posts On Economic and Geopolitical News

July 1, 2019 |

Are Stocks Making a Bull Trap?

bullish catalyst

The benchmark S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time record today. Stocks and risk appetite are on the rise as investors remain hopeful that a U.S./China trade agreement will be reached. Over the weekend, President Trump met with Chinese Leader Xi Jinping at the G20 meetings in Japan, and the two leaders essentially called a truce. The U.S. agreed not to raise levies on additional Chinese goods, while China reportedly agreed to purchase more U.S. agricultural products. With the two sides seemingly back at the bargaining... Continue Reading

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June 19, 2019 |

Wait, What?

a divided fed

The highly anticipated Fed policy meeting has now come and gone, with Fed Chief Jerome Powell set to deliver his press conference. The central bank voted by a margin of 9-1 to hold the Fed Funds rate steady. The central bank did, however, still hint at the potential for rate cuts should conditions warrant such a move. The FOMC removed the word “patient” from its outlook, in a move that could signal a large degree of flexibility by the central bank. Some analysts have suggested... Continue Reading

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June 17, 2019 |

U.S. Hardline Stance May Cause Dominos To Fall

further to fall

The current state of geopolitics and the global economy warrant caution. Stocks are moving slightly higher in early action on Monday as the markets seem to be pinning their hopes on the Fed and another series of rate cuts. The Fed will be meeting this week, and although no action is expected on Wednesday, the central bank could lay the groundwork for the first rate cut in over 10 years next month. There are currently several issues at work, however, that could potentially set off... Continue Reading

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June 5, 2019 |

Lower Rates Are on the Way

Lower Rates

It’s no secret that the U.S. and global economies have hit some major bumps in the road in recent months. The ongoing U.S./China trade war is having a measurable impact on the economies of both nations, and thus far the war on trade appears set to continue for some time. The U.S. also last week announced a five percent tariff on Mexican goods to begin June 10th. Those tariffs are set to increase until Mexico takes action to stop the flow of illegal immigrants along... Continue Reading

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June 3, 2019 |

Risk Aversion Accelerates – This Could Be It

Trade Talks

The gold market is finally seeing some significant upside as risk aversion accelerates. The metal has now broken out of its recent trading range and could potentially set its sights on a new high for the year in the weeks ahead. There are numerous issues behind the recent ascent, and many of these issues could potentially fuel the next major global recession. The ongoing U.S./China trade war appears poised to continue. After a deal was reported to be close in recent weeks, both sides have... Continue Reading

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May 22, 2019 |

War on Trade Could Force the Fed’s Hand

all-time

Not long ago, the Federal reserve had taken a decidedly hawkish approach towards monetary policy. The Fed seemed confident in the economy and was ready to continue the current cycle of interest rate hikes. Market dynamics have shifted significantly in recent months; however, and thus the Fed may be forced to reverse course and start cutting rates again. The market has already priced in a 25-basis point hike by the end of the year. With the latest Fed meeting minutes looming this afternoon, the question... Continue Reading

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May 21, 2019 |

The Only True Safe Haven

cake and eat

Just because the gold market has had limited upside in recent months does not mean that investors won’t turn to the metal if things get dicey. The ongoing U.S./China trade war has taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks, and the war over trade could potentially take much longer to resolve than previously anticipated. Last week, Both sides pushed away from the negotiating table. The U.S. raised tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent. China, as expected,... Continue Reading

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May 14, 2019 |

Three Reasons Another Recession is Inevitable

Another Recession

Some analysts in recent months have suggested that the U.S. could be headed for another recession. The ongoing U.S./China trade war, fading effects from tax cuts and government spending and an aging expansion are just a few of the reasons cited. Other analysts have suggested that recent economic weakness and market declines are normal and simply some bumps in the road. Whether the next recession hits this year, next or in the next few years, it will arrive. Here are three simple reasons that a... Continue Reading

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May 8, 2019 |

Active Buyers Follow the Money

Active Buyers

According to a recent report from Financial Times, the People’s Bank of China has continued to add gold to its reserves for the fifth month in a row. The central bank reportedly added 480,000 ounces last month bringing its total holdings to $78.3 billion. China hasn’t been the only buyer of the metal either. Numerous emerging market central banks have been active buyers as nations seek to diversify their reserves away from the dollar. Last year, central banks reportedly bought some $27 billion worth of... Continue Reading

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May 6, 2019 |

A Prime Example- Volatility Spike

Volatility Spike

Over the weekend: President Trump alluded to a breakdown in ongoing U.S./China trade negotiations. The U.S. is now set to impose further tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, taking the current rate of 10 percent up to 25 percent. Talks were scheduled to continue this week in Washington, although it is now unclear if scheduled meetings will take place. Markets are on edge over the news, as stocks had seemingly priced in a deal being done in the coming weeks. Volatility Spike: Today, the... Continue Reading

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