Posts On Economic and Geopolitical News

April 15, 2016 |

The Coming Bear Market in Stocks

sign of strength

In general, a bear market is a market that has declined twenty percent from its high. This drop becomes especially significant when multiple stock indexes are down twenty percent or more and when these declines have lasted for at least several weeks. Are U.S. stocks currently in a bear market? No. Are global equity markets in bear market statuses? Yes. Could U.S. stocks be headed for a bear market? Absolutely. While no one can see the future, the domestic stock market could potentially be at... Continue Reading

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April 13, 2016 |

Gold as a World Currency

Global Money

It’s no secret that gold, silver, and other precious metals are viewed as the embodiment of wealth. After all, these precious metals have been used by man for thousands of years to facilitate exchange, back paper currency, and protect assets. Not too long ago, the United States and other parts of the world were on the gold standard in which every unit of currency had to be “backed up” by gold. Could a return to a gold standard be seen? Could gold simply become a... Continue Reading

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March 7, 2016 |

Could the Fed Return to Quantitative Easing?

QE, QE4

The question of whether or not the Fed would actually raise interest rates for the first time in almost a decade was answered in December. After several months of speculation, the central bank stuck to its plan of an initial rate hike by the end of 2015. Was this rate hike justified? Maybe yes, maybe no. Certainly debatable… Now that a new year has begun, investors have been trying to gauge the central bank’s intentions on further interest rate hikes. The generally accepted thought was... Continue Reading

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February 22, 2016 |

Expect a Recession by Year End Says Stockman

  In this clip, Former Reagan OMB Director David Stockman talks with CNBC’s Jackie DeAngelis and the Futures Now traders about a potential recession. He states, “This time it’s different… we are looking into the jaws of a recession, it will become more evident by the week … [Everyone] in the market is going to panic when they face recession and the Fed can’t do anything…”

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February 1, 2016 |

How Would You Feel If You Had To PAY YOUR BANK To Hold Your Money?

The Bank of Japan on Friday “called down the thunder” by announcing an unexpected move to negative interest rates. What exactly does that mean? It means that institutions will now have to pay the central bank to park excess cash reserves over and above reserves required by regulations. Shouldn’t the bank be paying the depositor in the form of interest? The short answer is yes. Desperate times, however, call for desperate measures. The Bank of Japan is seemingly in desperation mode doing anything it possibly... Continue Reading

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September 30, 2015 |

Billionaire Carl Icahn warns of 'danger ahead' for US economy

billionaire-investor-carl-icahn

Billionaire investor Carl Icahn may have said no to being Donald Trump’s Treasury secretary, but he isn’t ready to give up the national stage yet. In a rare move — even for an investor so accustomed to the public spotlight — the founder and chairman of $8.5 billion Icahn Enterprises has produced a video warning of ‘danger ahead’ for the U.S. economy. Carl_Icahn // VIDEO TRANSCRIPT Carl: I am concerned about the high yield market. I think that’s in a major bubble, but I wouldn’t... Continue Reading

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September 16, 2015 |

Consumer Price Index Shows Soft Price Data

consumer-price-index

The Consumer Price Index in the U.S. this morning showed a month-over-month change of -.1% and a year-over-year reading of .2%. The core reading showed a month-over-month reading of .1% and a year-over-year reading of 1.8%. These figures show little to no price pressures and may suggest that recent worry over deflation is a real and significant threat. To understand the Consumer Price Index, you have to understand what you are looking at. Headline CPI: The headline CPI figures factors in changes in a basket... Continue Reading

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September 15, 2015 |

3…2…1…No Lift-Off

Eagle Bird

With a great deal of economic data set for release this week, all eyes will be focused on Thursday’s FOMC announcement and subsequent press conference. This is the moment investors have been waiting for over several weeks now and the Fed could potentially drive significant market movement based on its decision regarding interest rates. Odds for a September lift-off appear to have decreased significantly in recent weeks and the Fed may elect to hold off until December or perhaps even longer. While anything is possible,... Continue Reading

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September 4, 2015 |

She Loves Me…She Loves Me Not…

Washington Gold Bar

Watching market developments and listening to the Fed is kind of like the old game of “she loves me she loves me not.” The highly anticipated non-farm payrolls data for August was released this morning and we would argue that the Fed is probably no closer to a decision on rates than they were yesterday or the day before or the day before that… According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the U.S. added just 173,000 jobs in August. Consensus estimates were looking for 220,000... Continue Reading

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September 4, 2015 |

Think the Fed Will Hike? Think Again.

USA Federal service USA Federal Reserve Trouble for Stocks

From our vantage point, a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve at this point seems about as likely as the price of gold going to zero. While the central bank has talked the talk for many months now, one has to wonder if such talk is more about saving face than substance. In fact, the only way we see a September rate hike is if the non-farm payrolls data for August is substantially above consensus estimates. Again, we feel this is not likely. If... Continue Reading

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