Posts by Adam Baratta

May 28, 2019 |

So Many Catalysts to Choose From

catalyst

The gold market has been range-bound in recent weeks. Dips into recent support from $1275-$1290 have been aggressively bought thus far, and the market appears to be quite comfortable in its recent range. The bears have not been able to carve out a fresh leg lower, suggesting that prices may be at a near-term or perhaps even long-term bottom. Since gold does not appear to want to go lower, it may simply be a matter of time before its starts moving higher again. Perhaps the... Continue Reading

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May 22, 2019 |

War on Trade Could Force the Fed’s Hand

all-time

Not long ago, the Federal reserve had taken a decidedly hawkish approach towards monetary policy. The Fed seemed confident in the economy and was ready to continue the current cycle of interest rate hikes. Market dynamics have shifted significantly in recent months; however, and thus the Fed may be forced to reverse course and start cutting rates again. The market has already priced in a 25-basis point hike by the end of the year. With the latest Fed meeting minutes looming this afternoon, the question... Continue Reading

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May 10, 2019 |

Gold Sustainability- What Won’t Go Down Often Goes Up

Bullish catalyst

The gold market has not seen any substantial upside rallies in recent weeks. In fact, after recently coming under pressure, the metal has simply been treading water around its 200-day moving average and the $1280-$1290 region. The longer it sits in this region, however, the better. Although the long-term bullish case for gold sustainability remains intact, There have been no shortage of reasons for the metal to see some selling pressure in recent months. Rising interest rates, a stronger dollar and fresh all-time highs for... Continue Reading

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May 6, 2019 |

A Prime Example- Volatility Spike

Volatility Spike

Over the weekend: President Trump alluded to a breakdown in ongoing U.S./China trade negotiations. The U.S. is now set to impose further tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, taking the current rate of 10 percent up to 25 percent. Talks were scheduled to continue this week in Washington, although it is now unclear if scheduled meetings will take place. Markets are on edge over the news, as stocks had seemingly priced in a deal being done in the coming weeks. Volatility Spike: Today, the... Continue Reading

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April 26, 2019 |

Why Buying Big on Dips Can Pay Off

Gold Coins; Dips Mean Buy Gold Now

The gold market has seen some significant dips in recent weeks. The market’s lack of upside follow-through combined with a breakdown below previous support levels has some pundits looking for further downside. As discussed in a recent post, large declines should not be feared but rather welcomed. A simple yet powerful strategy may look to buy heavier on any significant dips in price – say 5% or more. Although adding ounces on a regular basis is a great thing, buying heavier on such dips can... Continue Reading

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April 24, 2019 |

Cut Out the Noise from the Financial Media

financial media

Investors currently have a lot to digest and the financial media hasn’t helped. Stocks are in melt-up mode as earnings thus far have been strong and as key benchmarks carve out fresh all-time highs. The dollar has also followed suit and could potentially be headed for another leg higher. Risk appetite is strong while market volatility continues to probe lower. Financial Media Hyping Gold Declines As far as gold goes, there has been considerable talk of how it has been “broken” technically. The 200-day moving... Continue Reading

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April 17, 2019 |

Why the Dollar Is Overvalued

Close to the Fed

The U.S. dollar has been on the stronger side of the ledger in recent months. There are numerous factors at work that have kept the greenback moving higher, including strong U.S.  economic data and weakness in other regions. Creeping Weakness Affecting the Dollar Recent months have seen some significant weakness creep into the U.S. data stream, however, and China has been reporting some serious weakness of its own. The dollar has likely enjoyed the benefits of weaker growth in emerging markets and the fear of... Continue Reading

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April 10, 2019 |

Does the Fed’s About Face Mean QE4 Is in the Cards?

QE, QE4

Could quantitative easing be in our future? QE4 could be just around the corner… The notion of a global slowdown has been widely covered by the financial media in recent months. Weakness in key areas such as manufacturing has been seen in both China and the U.S. The Eurozone is seeing its own struggles as well, with Italy already in recession and Germany perhaps on its way. The slowing global economy has led the U.S. Fed to do a major about-face in recent weeks. It... Continue Reading

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April 5, 2019 |

Negative Yields on the Rise

US Yield Curve

The German Government bond recently sank back below the 0% threshold for the first time since 2016. The decline in yields is part of an overall trend as investors become increasingly skittish about the prospects for the global economy. According to a recent article from MarketWatch, “the total sum of negative-yielding debt in bond issues represented in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index stood at nearly $9.7 trillion, marking a more than 50% increase from September.” The recent decline in German bond yields put... Continue Reading

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April 1, 2019 |

The Mueller Report Has Come and Gone… Now What?

further to fall

The highly anticipated Mueller report has now come and gone. What could have resulted in significant market volatility and a major sell-off has ended up more like a whimper, having little to no impact on markets today. To be clear, however, the report could lead to additional political fighting as Democrats seek to see and release the full report and as other investigations continue. With the special counsel investigation now over, however, investors may again focus their attention elsewhere. The inverted yield curve caught the... Continue Reading

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