Posts On Economic and Geopolitical News

December 25, 2018 |

Markets Don’t Agree with the Fed

Another Recession

The Fed’s decision to hike rates again on Wednesday was met with displeasure from equity investors. Stocks saw sharp declines even as the Fed lowered its forecast for next year from three rate hikes to two. That displeasure was on full display on Thursday, as stocks once again got absolutely rocked. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was down 3% at the lows, putting it down over 20% from its August peak. Although the index recovered a bit, it still ended the session down just under 20% from... Continue Reading

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December 21, 2018 |

Fed Hikes Rates by a Quarter-Point

Interest Rate Block

The highly anticipated Fed meeting on monetary policy has concluded with the central bank electing to hike rates by 25 basis points. The quarter-point hike was not unsuspected and investors will likely be far more concerned with the central bank’s commentary about its plans for next year. The Fed voted unanimously to hike rates today, while it lowered rate hike expectations for next year down to two from three. The Fed also lowered its longer-term estimate of the Fed Funds rate to 2.8% from 3%... Continue Reading

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December 19, 2018 |

What if Stocks Declined by 50% or More?

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Recent stock market volatility and declines could be a taste of things to come. The market has been moving higher for a decade now on the back of ultra-low rates and easy money. That era is coming to an end, however, and stocks could be in for quite the shock as monetary policy tightens. The ultra-low rate policies of central banks have allowed corporations to invest, expand and hire. As the cost of capital increases, however, these wheels are likely to grind to a halt.... Continue Reading

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December 17, 2018 |

The Ultimate Safe Haven

Economic Indicators

The markets have seen increasing volatility in recent weeks as rates move higher and as stocks decline. Recent market volatility could, however, be just a drop in the bucket of what could be seen as the New Year gets underway. Investors have numerous issues to contend with and a great deal of uncertainty about what the Fed may or may not do with monetary policy. The potential for an ongoing trade war with China, the ongoing issues in U.S. politics, Brexit and more could all... Continue Reading

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December 13, 2018 |

Now is the time to buy dips

all-time

The gold market was quiet in trading today yet gave up little ground as the metal backs off recent highs. The market is just below key resistance at the October highs in the $1252 area and could be gearing up to punch through that level to the upside. Stocks, on the other hand, continue to see increasing volatility and declines. Recent price action in stocks could simply be a drop in the bucket of further declines that could take place in the weeks and months... Continue Reading

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December 6, 2018 |

It’s Not Too Late

Stocks are continuing their recent plunge today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down over 600 points in mid-day trade. Market volatility, as measured by the CBOE’s VIX index, is spiking today to the mid-20s and investors appear to be getting panicky as no bottom has yet been found. The recent selling in equities could, however, be just the tip of the iceberg and a far more significant decline could be seen in the weeks and months ahead. Despite some recent positive commentary on the... Continue Reading

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December 5, 2018 |

Markets Sharply Higher as Trade Tensions Ease

The highly anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping took place over the weekend at the G20 meetings in Argentina. The two leaders had an opportunity to discuss trade and a range of issues, and reportedly came to an important agreement. The two nations effectively called a cease-fire over further tariffs that were set to be initiated on January 1st, 2019. The agreement was certainly progress considering little headway has been made in recent months. Whether the two countries can... Continue Reading

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November 29, 2018 |

Is the Fed Starting to Backtrack?

FOMC

Rising interest rates have been the topic of considerable debate in recent months. The Fed has been sticking to its plan of gradual rate hikes while the benchmark 10-year note yield is solidly above the 3% level. Higher rates have not gone unnoticed, with everyone from President Donald Trump to Mad Money host Jim Cramer weighing in. Stock investors have also made their opinion clear, with recent declines and increasing volatility being largely blamed on higher rates. So far, the Fed has stuck to its... Continue Reading

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November 27, 2018 |

Trouble Brewing

The last several weeks have seen a very noticeable difference in risk appetite and market dynamics. Stocks have begun to show some significant signs of cracking as volatility has broken out to the upside. For stock investors, the last several weeks could simply be a small taste of more to come. Indeed, the market has covered a lot of ground over the last decade and could have a long way to fall if fundamentals continue to deteriorate. The next major potential catalyst for another leg... Continue Reading

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November 23, 2018 |

The War on Rates

stock-market-crash-crisis copy

The stock market has had another trying week, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped some 900 points in a span of just two days. There are certainly a number of headwinds currently at play, including the ongoing war on trade, a stronger dollar and various geopolitical issues. Without question, however, the primary catalyst for this week’s stock selling appears to be the notion of higher interest rates. The Fed and its plans to normalize monetary policy have been the topic of significant debate in... Continue Reading

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