Is The Trump Trade Being Unwound?
Not to beat a dead horse, but recent price action in key markets begs the question of whether or not the Trump trade has finally run its course.
Since Trump’s Presidential election victory in early November, many markets have done the exact opposite of what many analysts were calling for. Stocks have rocketed higher while bonds have been pummeled. The dollar index has also risen sharply in the last several weeks as rates have been on the rise.
Optimism over possible tax cuts and a large increase in fiscal spending has been the primary catalyst for the recent rally in stocks. The rally, however, appears to be running on fumes at this point.
Yesterday, Trump held his highly anticipated press conference. Markets were hoping that Trump would use this press conference to provide more details about many of his plans going forward once he takes office in less than two weeks.
Unfortunately, markets did not get much to go on. Now, there are some serious signs of cracks in the recent rally and investors are left wondering if the new administration will really be able to deliver on many of its campaign promises.
Bond yields have been declining for a few weeks now after hitting post-Trump election victory highs last month. The dollar index also appears to be stalling out, and could potentially see a large pullback. Stocks are starting to see some selling pressure as they have failed to carve out a fresh all-time high.
As is often the case during times of economic or geopolitical uncertainty, gold has been on the rise.
Markets have set themselves up for a potentially large fall as the recent buying spree may have been overdone, and without further clarity from the new administration about its economic plans, investors may become impatient and more risk averse.
It remains to be seen just how all of this may play out over the next several months. If investors see economic policies and fiscal spending plans as a let-down, markets could see some significant reversals.
Now may be the ideal time to diversify ahead of what may be a year filled with significant economic and geopolitical change.
Now may be the ideal time to consider real, hard assets like physical gold and silver.
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If you don’t have an allocation in physical gold or silver, now may be the time to consider one.
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Tags: advantage gold, bond yields, election, gold, market uncertainty, trump