April 8, 2019 |

Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact

Stock markets have recently put together an impressive string of gains that has taken the benchmark S&P 500 above previous resistance. Stocks could potentially be headed for an attempt at fresh all-time highs as volatility continues to decline. And why shouldn’t they? The Fed has become increasingly dovish; a U.S./China trade deal may be getting close, and jobless claims are at the lowest level in 50 years. Against this positive backdrop for stocks, however, lurk a number of issues that could derail risk assets in... Continue Reading

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April 5, 2019 |

Negative Yields on the Rise

US Yield Curve

The German Government bond recently sank back below the 0% threshold for the first time since 2016. The decline in yields is part of an overall trend as investors become increasingly skittish about the prospects for the global economy. According to a recent article from MarketWatch, “the total sum of negative-yielding debt in bond issues represented in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index stood at nearly $9.7 trillion, marking a more than 50% increase from September.” The recent decline in German bond yields put... Continue Reading

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April 3, 2019 |

Central Bank Demand for Gold Surging

the week ahead

Central bank demand for gold reportedly hit the highest levels in 2018 since the end of the Bretton Woods system of dollar convertibility in 1971. With some analysts referring to gold as some type of meaningless relic, this begs the question of why the biggest financial institutions on the planet are looking to acquire even more gold. Store of Value Gold has a very long history as a reliable store of wealth and value. In the post-Bretton Woods era and without a return to some... Continue Reading

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April 1, 2019 |

The Mueller Report Has Come and Gone… Now What?

further to fall

The highly anticipated Mueller report has now come and gone. What could have resulted in significant market volatility and a major sell-off has ended up more like a whimper, having little to no impact on markets today. To be clear, however, the report could lead to additional political fighting as Democrats seek to see and release the full report and as other investigations continue. With the special counsel investigation now over, however, investors may again focus their attention elsewhere. The inverted yield curve caught the... Continue Reading

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March 29, 2019 |

6 Reasons We Could See a Weaker Dollar

weaker dollar, gold strength

As a dollar-denominated commodity, the gold market can be heavily influenced by strength or weakness in the greenback. Dollar strength may weigh on gold as it makes the metal relatively more expensive for foreign buyers, while a weaker dollar may boost the price of gold as it makes the metal relatively less expensive. The relationship between gold and the dollar, and all other paper currencies for that matter, is so important that investors often buy the metal as a hedge against a weaker dollar. Although... Continue Reading

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March 27, 2019 |

The Fed’s Towel-Throw Could Spell Trouble for Stocks

USA Federal service USA Federal Reserve Trouble for Stocks

At its most recent meeting on monetary policy, the Fed outdid many of even the most dovish expectations. The central bank essentially came out and said – without actually saying it – that trouble for stocks is ahead, and the next recession is approaching. All the Fed’s previous talk about further rate hikes in 2019 and the balance sheet run-off continuing on autopilot were completely wrong. Although the central bank could potentially hike once more in 2020, such a move could be more of a... Continue Reading

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March 25, 2019 |

How About a Quick 18% Drop in Stocks?

drop in stocks

Some analysts have been sounding the alarm bells for a drop in stocks for some time now. Although equities have not thus far fallen apart as some had suggested, the situation has become increasingly cautious. Another analyst recently came out with a call for an 18% drop in stocks. This, however, is one analyst you may want to listen to. His name is Gary Shilling, and he has a knack for calling turning points in the economy. Having called major turns in the 60s, then... Continue Reading

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March 19, 2019 |

It’s a Classic Bull Trap

bull trap

Stocks have again found their winning ways in recent weeks but it’s likely all a classic bull trap… After a rough end to 2018, the markets have been moving higher even as a U.S./China trade deal remains elusive. The benchmark S&P 500 is once again challenging resistance around the 2800 level, and some investors are hopeful that the market will stage an upside breakout and embark on a fresh leg higher into a new all-time high territory. However, investors may be very disappointed if the... Continue Reading

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March 13, 2019 |

EU Slowdown May Be Worse Than Expected

EU slowdown

It’s no secret that the Eurozone continues to struggle with a slow economy. The EU has seen many of the ups and downs that have been seen in the U.S. in recent years while also having to contend with numerous other issues such as massive sovereign debts and policy disagreements. Now, the ECB has slashed its growth and inflation forecasts for the year while also lowering the outlook for 2020 and 2021. This would seemingly acknowledge the fact that the slowdown being seen in Europe... Continue Reading

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March 12, 2019 |

U.S. Treasury Taking Steps to Avoid Debt Ceiling

US Treasury, Debt Ceiling

As U.S. debt has soared past the $22 trillion level, the ongoing problem is once again catching some attention. It was recently reported that the Treasury Department is taking some extraordinary measures to avoid violating the debt ceiling as it could have significant effects. Reuters reported that Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin sent a letter to House Speak Nancy Pelosi on Monday saying he was suspending investment in the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and that a “debt issuance suspension period” would commence on Monday... Continue Reading

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